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Picks against the spread

picks against the spread

NFL Week 10 Picks. By Danny AgaihstDanny Kellyand 1 more. He will align on both edges as a pass-rusher -- meaning he will see both Arizona tackles, D.


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Picks against the spread -

Betting nugget: Overs are in Bears games under coach Matt Eberflus, the highest over percentage in the NFL the past two seasons.

Unders are in Saints games in that span tied for third highest under percentage. Moody's pick: Saints 28, Bears 14 Walder's pick: Saints 24, Bears 21 FPI prediction: NO, Matchup must-reads: Bears 'confident' they can sign Sweat to new deal Saints play through stomach bug to have best offensive day Bears fire Walker over workplace behavior, source confirms.

ET CBS Spread : BAL -6 Storyline to watch: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has thrived under pressure, producing the highest yards per attempt Bold prediction: Seahawks running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet will combine for at least 30 carries.

Charbonnet has made a case for more work after gaining a season-high 53 yards on only five attempts last week.

The rookie second-round pick hasn't had more than nine attempts in a game yet, and he and Walker haven't combined for more than But that should change Sunday as the Seahawks try to take pressure off quarterback Geno Smith , who has thrown five interceptions over his past three games.

Stat to know: Baltimore's defense has allowed the lowest QBR and fewest yards per attempt when using zone coverage this season, while allowing zero touchdowns to five interceptions. For Seattle, Smith ranks top 10 in the NFL in QBR and yards per attempt when using zone coverage.

Matchup X factor: Ravens WR Zay Flowers. Look for him to catch some screen passes on run-pass option concepts. Flowers has 17 screen receptions this season, and the Ravens can take the numbers advantages on the perimeter to get Flowers loose in space. Injuries: Seahawks Ravens.

In consecutive games, Gus Edwards has surpassed 14 rushing attempts and scored plus fantasy points. Betting nugget: The Ravens are ATS as home favorites since most home ATS losses of any team.

Moody's pick: Ravens 31, Seahawks 24 Walder's pick: Ravens 20, Seahawks 16 FPI prediction: BAL, Matchup must-reads: Giants trade Williams to Seahawks for two picks Why the Chiefs, Dolphins, Jaguars and Ravens can win the AFC.

ET CBS Spread : HOU -3 Storyline to watch: It's worth keeping an eye on how Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles attacks Texans rookie quarterback C. Stroud on defense, because that could be the determining factor in who wins this game.

It's a clash of two styles. But Stroud has a passer rating of Bold prediction: The Buccaneers will force Stroud to turn the ball over twice. The Texans rookie has done a tremendous job taking care of the football -- he has just one interception and three fumbles two lost this season -- but this Buccaneers defense, even amid a three-game losing streak, is still one of the better units in the league at taking the ball away.

Tampa Bay's defense is tied for the third-most turnovers 14 in the NFL this season. Stat to know: The Buccaneers are averaging The Bucs are the only team to average fewer than 80 rushing yards Matchup X factor: Texans WR Nico Collins.

Houston can scheme up some throws to him against three-deep zone and create vacated voids for Collins, who has already caught 13 explosive-play receptions this season. Injuries: Buccaneers Texans. What to know for fantasy: The Buccaneers' defense gives up the fifth-most passing yards per game and the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Tampa Bay's defensive front also ranks 26th in pass rush win rate, which bodes well for Stroud and the Texans' offense. Betting nugget: The Texans have lost five straight games outright as favorites dating to this season.

That is the second-longest active streak in the NFL Panthers are at nine straight. Moody's pick: Texans 20, Buccaneers 17 Walder's pick: Texans 23, Buccaneers 16 FPI prediction: HOU, Matchup must-reads: Bucs trying to end three-game skid after hot start Stroud, Texans look to bounce back after worst performance.

ET CBS Spread : IND Storyline to watch: Panthers coach Frank Reich is facing the team that fired him nine games into last season, and this game has a chance to be entertaining. The Colts have given up an average of 38 points during a three-game losing streak.

Quarterback Bryce Young and the Panthers are finding themselves offensively, with no turnovers in the past two games. But this could come down to the running game. Indianapolis ranks ninth in the NFL averaging rushing yards, while Carolina ranks 29th in rush defense, giving up Bold prediction: The Colts will rush for a season-high yards or more, with coach Shane Steichen finally fully embracing the running game as a primary means of attack.

Jonathan Taylor has been steadily heating up in the past couple of weeks, while Zack Moss continues to build on his fast start. Stat to know: Colts QB Gardner Minshew has turned the ball over nine times since Week 6, the most in the NFL.

He has thrown an interception in three consecutive games and is looking to avoid being the first Colts quarterback with an interception in four consecutive games since Andrew Luck in Matchup X factor: Taylor.

He is averaging 5. Injuries: Colts Panthers. What to know for fantasy: The Panthers' defense allows the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Betting nugget: The Panthers are ATS this season, the only team in the NFL to not cover multiple games this season. They are ATS at home unders are Moody's pick: Colts 28, Panthers 20 Walder's pick: Colts 27, Panthers 10 FPI prediction: IND, Matchup must-reads: The good and bad of the Colts and Minshew Facing Colts not a 'personal thing' for Reich In first win, Young shows why Panthers took him No.

ET FOX Spread : LV Storyline to watch: Antonio Pierce won a Super Bowl with the Giants. He was named to a Pro Bowl playing linebacker for the Giants.

And now he makes his debut as an NFL interim coach going against the Giants while leading the team he grew up rooting for in Los Angeles. No wonder he started his first practice to the musical strains of seminal rap group N. Bold prediction: Giants running back Saquon Barkley will rush for yards.

Jets and gets to face a run defense allowing yards per game. This is a matchup for him to excel, especially because he's running behind an offensive line getting back both its starting tackles. Stat to know: The Raiders have won two straight home games after losing their home opener in Week 3 to Pittsburgh.

They have not won three straight at home since moving to Las Vegas in Matchup X factor: The Giants' blitz concepts. Wink Martindale's defense has a blitz rate of Now they get rookie QB Aidan O'Connell.

Injuries: Giants Raiders. What to know for fantasy: With O'Connell as the Raiders' starter, receiver Davante Adams should stockpile targets against the Giants. Over the course of his career, the veteran receiver has averaged nearly 2. Betting nugget: Giants games are to the under this season with seven straight unders.

And all three Raiders home games have gone under the total this season. Moody's pick: Raiders 20, Giants 10 Walder's pick: Giants 23, Raiders 6 FPI prediction: NYG, Matchup must-reads: Giants focus on the future with Williams trade Davis on firings: Raiders were heading in 'wrong direction' Waller potentially out weeks with hamstring injury ET FOX Spread : PHI -3 Storyline to watch: Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott did not play against each other last season because of injuries -- Prescott was sidelined for the Eagles' win in the first matchup, and Hurts was out for the Cowboys' victory later in the year.

Both quarterbacks come into this highly anticipated division matchup fresh off four-touchdown performances in their last outing. They lead two of the most prolific scoring teams in football: Dallas ranks second Bold prediction: A. Brown 's streak of yards receiving will come to an end at six games.

But that doesn't mean he won't go for yards. He and DeVonta Smith were the last receivers to have more than yards against the Cowboys, doing so last December. This year, the Cowboys have not allowed more than 86 yards receiving in a game to a wide receiver, so it will be tough.

Stat to know: Prescott has fared extremely well against the NFC East, going in his career. It's not just the wins and losses. Prescott has thrown 61 touchdown passes to 19 interceptions in those 35 division starts. Only Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes have a better touchdown-to-interception ratio in division games since the merger minimum 25 starts.

Matchup X factor: Eagles TE Dallas Goedert. The Eagles will see heavy man coverage from the Cowboys on third down, and they can deploy Goedert underneath to work away from coverage against safety Jayron Kearse. Defensively, after an ugly stretch in the middle of the season, head coach Sean McDermott has been able to find answers.

This is a team that nearly lost to Easton Stick a few weeks ago. And even against the Dolphins in Week 18, they did 12 stupid things before finally securing a victory.

Can the Bills blow the Steelers out? But only one of their final five wins came by more than a touchdown. This team lets opponents hang around, and the Steelers specialize in hanging around.

Going on the road in the playoffs and playing a potential snow game with a third-string quarterback? Mike Tomlin was built for this. In their first season of the post-Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers somehow produced the sixth-best offense and the fourth-best passing offense in the NFL.

I think maybe that Matt LaFleur guy—the one with the career record of —might be able to coach a little bit. This offense has been a blast to watch. I trust them to be able to move the ball against pretty much anyone. That could mean one of two things:.

This sets up well for Dak Prescott to have a monster game. Prescott was sensational this season, finishing second in EPA per pass play. It played well the last two weeks of the regular season, against the backup-QB-led Vikings and the rival Bears, but this group is not to be trusted.

Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and the Cowboys should go up and down the field against Green Bay. During the regular season, the Cowboys went with a plus point differential at home. The Cowboys should have a special teams edge, too. The Packers ranked 31st in special teams DVOA during the regular season, while Dallas was 10th.

I went back and forth but ultimately decided to take the points. The Packers were a consistently competitive team once they found their way. In their last 10 games, they went and had only one loss of more than four points.

I really like how their offense has looked and think they can score enough to keep this one close. The case for the Rams: This offense got healthy at the perfect time and is clicking.

The eye-popping moment for this group probably came in Week 14, when the Rams put up yards on a Ravens team that had been dominating opponents.

Now they get to face a Lions defense that let Nick Mullens throw for yards last week. has a veteran coach in Sean McVay who has reinvented himself.

This team enters the playoffs as a 6-seed, but it has a Super Bowl ceiling. The case for the Lions: Jared Goff revenge game!

This story line is so juicy. Even when Goff was playing well for McVay, he got no credit. It was all about McVay coming up with brilliant play designs and instructing Goff through the headset like he was a puppet. Then when things went south for the Rams, Goff got all the blame.

But weird things happen in the NFL, and Goff has shown he can play well outside of the McVay structure. The Lions defense has been shaky, but they finished the season 13th in DVOA, which represented a big upgrade from Great offense plus mediocre defense equals contender.

How I see it: Full disclosure: Earlier this week, when we had to turn in our staff predictions , I picked the Rams. Well, guess what? I think the Rams are going to light up this Lions defense. I hate that Detroit may be without tight end Sam LaPorta, but I think the Lions offense is still going to be able to keep pace.

Ultimately, there are two reasons I switched to Detroit. One, special teams. The Rams have the worst special teams in the NFL. They are a complete disaster. This is a group that lost games for L.

I do not trust them at all in this spot. McVay is a great coach, but in-game decision-making has long been a weak point. So there you go. The case for the Eagles: They are the more talented team. The Eagles offense has underachieved this season, but in any given game, when they have their guys Jalen Hurts, A.

Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, a healthy offensive line , they can score plus. When these two teams played in Week 3, the Eagles delivered a dominant victory.

The offense piled up yards, and the defense limited the Bucs to just The Lions are tied for the best record in the NFC at Their plus point differential is fifth overall and second in the conference, behind only the 49ers. They could easily be I have flip-flopped on my pick here roughly 27 times.

I really like this Lions team. I have an announcement to make: The days of me blindly taking Mike Tomlin as an underdog are over. The Steelers are But this current Steelers offense is just so, so painful to watch. Through six weeks, the Steelers offense is 29th in EPA per drive and 32nd in success rate.

They are fifth in EPA per drive and fourth in success rate. Matthew Stafford is consistently making tough throws, and Cooper Kupp has looked like his usual self since returning from injury.

We had a lot of good times. I hope that we can still be friends. The Seahawks held the Bengals to 52 yards and a field goal in the second half. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have been outscored by 50 total points during their current three-game losing streak.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed This feels like a spot where Seattle QB Geno Smith has a big game. Give me the Seahawks. Those were two relatively evenly matched teams, and Dallas won by a field goal.

It happens. But the experience of watching the Chargers continues to underwhelm. They just feel like a mostly toothless bunch with no real identity. He played poorly, and his performance was one of the reasons they lost. The Chiefs made a trade with the Jets this week and are bringing wide receiver Mecole Hardman back , but it still feels like they lack some firepower on offense.

The floor is always going to be high with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but the ceiling now feels somewhat limited, compared to past versions of the Chiefs. We all know what the most Charger-y thing to do here would be: Beat the Chiefs, get the fans excited again, and then let them down in the dumbest way possible in the weeks ahead.

I keep seeing reports about a Broncos fire sale before the trade deadline. Who exactly are the players on this roster that other teams covet?

Every Jordan Love completion felt like a surprise. But this is the week to turn that around. Opponents are completing a league-high Maybe this is the week.

The Dolphins are averaging Not bad! The Dolphins came back and scored 35 straight points en route to another victory. The Eagles suffered their first loss of the season last week, which included Jalen Hurts throwing an uncharacteristic interception late in the fourth quarter against the Jets.

Two big differences with this Eagles offense, compared to last season:.

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