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spotybet sports personality of the year betting analysis Spotybet. All ckm the running cmo positives. This year though he arguably has less strong opposition overall, with no sign of any campaign contenders like Jordan Henderson and Hollie Doyle. Content Management System.

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It will be interesting to see the show and how the markets react in-running. Once again the Olympics delivered. Despite all the challenges it provided its usual mix of outstanding performances, high drama and captivating stories.

They finished 4th in the medal table, below their 2nd place in Rio but equal on 65 medals with London. There was uncertainty about how Tokyo would come across without paying fans but there seemed to be enough spectators athletes, staff and officials etc at most events to create a decent enough atmosphere.

There were 22 Team GB golds but three in particular had the SPOTY markets scrambled. After Dina Asher-Smith failed to qualify for the m final and withdrew from the m, Daley became the new SPOTY favourite.

The market settled down until Laura Kenny won gold with Katie Archibald in a dominant display in the madison on Friday. This, along with an earlier silver in the team pursuit, made Laura the most successful female Olympian 5 golds and 1 silver and the first to win a gold at three successive Games.

She traded as short as evens for a moment on Betfair and Daley was briefly forgotten. Daley shored up his position by winning bronze in the individual event on Saturday morning.

Suddenly, surprisingly Kenny then burst into life in the keirin final in the small hours of Sunday morning launching off the front to shock everyone. The Kennys have made history and the titles of being the most successful male and female Olympians give them a certain gravitas.

There are some warning signs around the likelihood of Jason winning SPOTY though. It has to be noted that in he won 3 golds, the most by a GB athlete in Rio, yet finished only 10th in SPOTY Laura was 8th. Could it be that the market is also overplaying the appeal of the historical feat to voters.

After all in Jason had gone level with Hoy at the top of the all-time list. And Hoy himself in went clear at the top with his 6 golds in total yet only finished 7th that year although he had already won it in At this stage my feeling is the value lies in Daley. He has a long history with SPOTY being the only person to win Young SPOTY three times voted for by a panel, rather than the public in , and when he also finished 6th for the main award with 50k votes.

He has a huge following 2. His bronze medal in the individual event should secure him a place on the shortlist. Finally winning Olympic gold after all these years provides some of that novelty value that is key in SPOTY winners — he offers something different to his competitors that in some ways are hard to separate from each other.

In terms of the rest of the year we have the Paralympics to come which can always provide a good story or two.

The world track cycling championships will also take place in October where it may be worth keeping an eye on the Kennys. There is the Ryder Cup too. Hamilton can never be entirely discounted if we wins a record 8th F1 title. But overall there may not be too much opportunity left for others to get involved.

It will be interesting to see how long the shortlist will be this year. In it was 16 and it was There is always the possibility of a big priced contender coming with a late charge. Up until a couple of weeks ago this had been the quietest of starts to a SPOTY year.

Since the start of the century British sportsmen and women have conquered many events that had previously seemed out of reach for many years. There has been: a two-time Wimbledon champion, multiple Tour de France titles, England cricket and rugby world cup wins, multiple Ashes victories, as well as Olympic gold rushes.

One prize for many though is valued above them all — a major international football championship. It would be the sporting highlight of the year leading to a likely domination of the awards on SPOTY night.

When England won the rugby and cricket world cups it led to clear cut wins in the main award for Jonny Wilkinson and Ben Stokes. The tricky part is pinpointing who such an individual would be if England were to win.

Kane and Sterling have stolen the headlines throughout the tournament and are the most likely to impress on the night. Kane is on 4 goals, one behind Ronaldo and Schick, so could finish as top scorer. Due to the tie-break rules he would need a goal and two assists to beat Ronaldo to the golden boot.

Sterling is on 3 goals. It is this difference, plus a sense that there is more of story with Sterling — with him growing up in the shadows of Wembley etc — that makes him the more appealing option at the odds.

A European Championship winner who was player of the tournament would be a big vote winner on SPOTY night. Sterling also won the league with Man City which is a small bonus for him too in any end of year write-up. But there remains a fair chance that England could fall at the final hurdle.

Could Kane or Sterling then still win SPOTY? It would seem much more difficult. Cavendish would then become a very interesting contender if he can level or beat the Tour de France all time stage win record of 34 held by Belgium legend Eddy Merckx.

This is a record that has stood since and has long been considered near unbeatable. If he was to do so, his current SPOTY price would disappear. There is also the last stage on 18 July, finishing on the Champs-Elysees in Paris, that looks suitable for a win.

The Manx missile is a previous SPOTY winner in when he won the green jersey in the Tour and the world championship. Cyclists have an exceptional SPOTY record in recent times taking the main award 4 times in the last 13 years.

He remains a very popular character, his late call up and comeback this year adding to the appeal after battling Epstein-Barr virus and depression.

He had long been written off by most as never to add to his last Tour stage win in The complicating factor to all of this is the Olympics coming up in Tokyo — the opening ceremony is on 23 July.

A classic SPOTY stat is that in any Olympic year from the SPOTY winner has won at least one Olympic gold Redgrave, Holmes, Hoy, Wiggins, Murray. Other factors have to be taken into account though in the assessment, including the strength of the opposition.

There is also some doubt as to whether these Games will capture the public imagination as much as normal with them being played out without fans.

Asher-Smith would be a worthy contender if she could win gold in one or both of the m or m. In the m American Gabby Thomas has been setting very quick times. She has a chance of three golds in the velodrome. Such a haul would take her to 7 in her career and top all-time above Hoy on 6 and also her husband Jason depending on if he can add to his 6 golds.

This could be appealing to voters. The question would be who might win in a head-to-head with Cavendish. The Olympics, and potentially Paralympics that follow, can also throw up more left-field contenders.

As ever they will be worth carefully monitoring. In the week leading up to the show a co-ordinated campaign for Doyle took off — she was backed all the way down from in the 20s to around 3. She gradually drifted out to around 4. Then Sunday afternoon saw the start of the huge gamble on Henderson as votehendo drowned out votehollie on social media.

Liverpool had won 7 nil the day before, their captain was on the score sheet and the Reds were in buoyant mood. Henderson had a good segment in the broadcast and the support on twitter and in the markets snowballed. In the end it may well have been the broader appeal of his achievements this year with more casual fans that powered him home, compared to his opponents.

Looking back at the Doyle gamble it is clear that the social media campaign was somewhat deceptive as to the likelihood of her hauling in the required votes to win. In terms of the site, it was a fun ride with the triple H threat of Ham, Hen and Hol all covered at bigger prices.

While voting figures are no longer released, my estimate would be that it was fairly close between the first two who were a well clear.

Ronnie may not have been that far off the podium. Fury was largely forgotten from his number 1 slot with much made of the potential Anthony Joshua clash to come.

Happy Christmas all. Look forward to next year and hope the Olympics in particular can go ahead. Olympic years and SPOTY betting — a great combination. The SPOTY show is this Sunday evening at 8pm on BBC1.

The shortlist of six was announced two weeks ago. Anyway all those on the list seem to have done alright this year so it seems fair enough to me.

He will instead be presented with a special award on the night for his work to help children in poverty. For a long time Rashford was all the rage in the SPOTY markets, backed down to as low as 1.

Footballers have struggled to make much of an impression in recent years — Raheem Sterling was out of the top 3 last year and Harry Kane was third in despite winning the golden boot at the world cup. How well the Liverpool captain polls will depend on how motivated fans are to vote.

Could the news of the passing away of their much-liked manager Gerard Houllier provide an extra push? He has also asked to be removed from the shortlist and for his fans not to vote for him. Today on ITV he said his lawyers had written to the BBC insisting he be removed.

He may not be given too much fanfare during the show and plenty made about how next year and a fight with Anthony Joshua is the real test. One recent bit of SPOTY form that may be worth noting is that he was beaten to best sporting moment by the England netball team in As is invariably the case with equine sports people they receive strong backing from those in their industry.

In a year when voting numbers may be down, a top 3 finish is achievable. This reflects recent cricket nominations failing to make much of an impression. Overall it does look as though Hamilton is in a strong position.

The make up of the top 3 is a puzzle and not easy to pin down. All in the running have positives. The campaign for Doyle, and her being the only female, makes a small top 3 bet worth an interest but not with too much confidence. Skybet has some forecast and tricast markets up for those wanting to throw a dart or two.

The World Sport Star shortlist has also been announced and Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power have a market — details of the contenders can be found in the link. Voting, and likely the market, closes tomorrow Tuesday 15 December at midday, with the winner announced before the show.

UFC fighter Khabib Nurmagomedov has a huge following. The concern is that the UK-only criteria will be too much of a stumbling block.

Please also feel free to comment on how things may pan out. The start of this year seemed very different with Dina Asher-Smith and Kane at top of the betting. He plays Kyren Wilson in the final starting today at 1.

Ronnie was trailing but went on to rattle off three frames in a row in swashbuckling style. The Rocket is a hugely popular character amongst snooker fans with his quickfire play and unusual brand of charisma. Surely this would change with victory on Sunday assuming SPOTY goes ahead , particularly in a year with limited sporting stories.

There would be strong motivation to vote for Ronnie amongst his army of fans and potentially multiple times with an element of wanting to reward him for his achievements in the sport throughout his career. Followers of the site are already covered on Lewis Hamilton at bigger prices. A cheap cover can be made on Wilson to win the title.

Any comments on how things are looking, please let us know. sports personality of the year betting analysis. Blog at WordPress.

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I will be analysing the market throughout the year, as well as the various sporting events that are likely to impact on it. A typical SPOTY year provides plenty of trading opportunities and by the end we should hopefully have built up a profitable portfolio.

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